Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant impacts on the Vietnamese economy, especially in the supply chain sector. According to new analysis by business transformation consultancy TMX Global, this sets the national economy back by a staggering US$1.9 billion annually.
Vietnam thrives after the pandemic, but many businesses are still struggling, TMX Global’s Country Manager of Vietnam, Thomas Harris, shares that last year, Vietnam experienced its fastest GDP growth of 8.02% since 1997, totaling to a GDP of US$413.8 billion (₫9.6 quadrillion ). Yet, with supply chain disruptions impacting an average of 0.47% of business revenue around the world , Vietnamese businesses are potentially forfeiting an estimate of US$1.9 billion a year in sales.
Mr. Harris notes, "Compared to other economies in the region, Vietnam has fared very well in its growth, coming back from the pandemic. The country experienced its fastest expansion in 25 years, yet some businesses were still adversely impacted by supply chain disruptions.
“As a manufacturing hub, the creeping high freight costs, tighter coal supplies, and inflation has been putting a strain on the finances of supply chain stakeholders.
“All in all, these disruptions have cost Vietnamese businesses, especially those in the textiles and electronics industries, a huge sum in terms of lost sales.
“Further to this, while Vietnam has benefited from manufacturers and businesses rebasing their facilities outside of China over last year, Vietnam is also showing signs of an export slowdown. This comes in light of a global slowdown in demand, and it is thus more important than ever for Vietnam to strengthen its supply chain capabilities to be resilient against economic pressures.”
Resilient supply chains also crucial for Vietnam’s green transition
Since 2015, the Vietnamese government has been proactively working on the first national development strategy to harness renewable energy, with a goal of powering 32% of total primary supply and electricity generation through renewables by 2030. This has resulted in a massive growth of solar capacity between 2019 to 2020.
However, a lack of proper supply chain infrastructure is having a knock-on effect when it comes to the country’s energy security and its ability to deliver low-carbon products. This could adversely impact businesses’ operations, and their competitiveness on the global stage over the long-term.
Today, Vietnam urgently needs a secure supply of green energy for its economic growth. Growing industrialization and economic modernization is projected to increase energy demand by over 8% per annum during the 2021-2030 period . At the same time, Vietnam has also received international support to transition to cleaner sources of energy, as demonstrated by G7’s recent pledge of US$15.5 billion .
Mr Harris cited COVID-19 as a key example on how gaps within Vietnam’s supply chain infrastructure can be barriers to this transition. For instance, while the government has been investing in connectivity within and between Tier 1 and 2 cities to reduce potential bottlenecks , there remain limitations in transportation due to lockdowns and delayed policy responses, which have impacted the availability of wind power equipment during the pandemic .
Vietnam’s green energy transition is crucial not only because of global pressures, but to also bolster the country’s energy security. Over 70% of the country’s industrial parks continue to be powered by the national power grid, sustained by coal , and the global energy crisis has shown that a reliance on coal can be detrimental to Vietnam’s economic growth – as illustrated by the persistent power outages and energy shortages that industries faced throughout 2022.
“Consumers are also becoming more eco-conscious, which means that a business’ ability to stay competitive on the global stage will also hinge on the country’s green transition.
“However, since the pandemic, we’ve seen that the transition is a complex process for Vietnam – one that hinges greatly on global trade and supply chains. With that, bolstering the nation’s supply chain landscape will not only directly benefit its longstanding manufacturing pillars such as textiles and footwear, but also positively impact all businesses that are on this national trajectory,” said Mr. Harris.
In terms of the key considerations for Vietnamese businesses for their supply chain strategy, he notes these three areas: Process, where operations are optimized and geared towards fast-changing customer preferences; Technology, leveraging digitalization and emerging innovations to enable these necessary business transformations; and People, where logistics workforce now needs to upskill and transform to serve a reinvented supply chain.
“There is no better opportunity and time now to adapt and learn from the supply chain challenges of last year. The TMX team is always gathering valuable insights from key events and trends and is ready to work with businesses in Vietnam to optimize supply chains and business operations,” shared Mr. Harris.
